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It's the Season to Consider Mattel
Update: 11/11/2007 6:33:00 AM Source: wsj.com

 

Just in time for the holidays, shares of battered toy maker Mattel (MAT) are looking attractive.

The stock is languishing near a 52-week low of around $20 a share, the result of a series of product recalls -- mostly of products made in China, where the government of Guangdong province has indicated it might sue Mattel for harming its reputation.
 
Last week Mattel issued its fifth recall in recent months, this time for products made in Mexico. But that recall was fairly minor, and the company, known for toy classics like Barbie, Ken and the Fisher Price line, looks to have put its problems behind it.

"There's very little, if any, downside risk" to Mattel's stock, says Linda Bolton Weiser, a toy analyst at Oppenheimer. She figures the stock could rebound by 50% in the coming year, to about $30, as parents -- and investors -- regain their confidence in the El Segundo, Calif.-based company.

In an email last week, Mattel representatives said the company "has now tested samples of the vast majority of products expected to ship for the holiday season."

Top public-relations pro Howard Rubenstein of New York, who does not represent Mattel, credits the company with moving quickly on the recalls, apologizing and making a public commitment to safety. After studying the situation, Mr. Rubenstein concludes that the company has avoided major consumer defections so far but must avoid more recalls.

While some lawsuits are pending against Mattel, they are considered manageable, as no one has died from the products in question. These include Batman action figures, Polly Pocket and some Barbie accessories

Mattel has some "short-term issues, but for the longer term, there's little effect" from the recalls, says Ira Carnahan, fund manager at T. Rowe Price, which has owned the stock for about a year. He figures the stock has "very limited downside" and ample room to run. "It doesn't need a sensational year, just a good year," Mr. Carnahan says.



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